BetPreview: Fulham FC vs Sheffield United 20/12/2021

Preview: Fulham FC vs Sheffield United 20/12/2021 betting preview, stats, predictions

Fulham FC will host Sheffield United on Monday, December 20, 2021, and you can read a special match preview and get some predictions here.

 Hello there, football betting enthusiast. This is Betakos, and I'm here with another Betting Stats Update. In this post, we will discuss the English Championship match between Fulham FC and Sheffield United. I use my own approach, which is based on two (2) different types of match classes. The first class I use is the Odds Class, and when the sample size is small, I use the Percentage Class.

Match Stats Class: Odds Class

The match belongs to Odds Class ENC 0,43 for which I find ten (10) past meetings in my data archive. The full-time results stats read 6-3-1 (H-D-A) with seven (7) out of ten (10) producing Over 2.5 goals. 

Odds Value

The statistics hint to a very strong tendency in favor of a home win or draw, with an away win being a longshot. The following consideration is value. With 60% validation, appropriate odds for a home win are anything equal to or greater than 1.67.

I note that the odds offered at the time of writing are close to fair odds.

 Value odds should always be the case for all bettors, no matter how much money you can afford to lose. However, if you want to bet on a home win, do it while the odds are still favorable. If your match reading indicates that the home team will win, grab the fair odds straight away.

Goal Expectancies

Stay with me to the end if you prefer a more advanced staking strategy. The next element I look at is goal averages and goal expectancies. I analyze goals for the Class, each match belongs to. As stated above we study this match based on its Odds Class. I calculate moving averages for each five (5) and three (3) games and then I also calculate the averages for the last group of five (5) or three (3) moving averages.

 This gives me an idea of how well or poorly teams in this Class perform, as well as how they are anticipated to do in the following match. For our match home teams have been scoring an average of 2.24 goals per match, calculated based on the last five (5) moving average of every five (5) games. The visitors score 1.32 in the same manner.

But it doesn't stop there. You can see that home teams have underperformed (in contrast to the averages) in recent games, thus there is a high goal expectation for the home team to pull the numbers back on track.

This suggests that in order for the next moving average of five (5) games to be formed and come close to the computed average, the home team should score 5.20 goals. The visiting side, on the other hand, has a far lower goal expectation, with just 0.60 goals required.

Of course, as you can see, values like 5.20 and 0.60 are unrealistic. All they are to us is a type of signal based only on math. This goal expectation favors the home win, even more, therefore we should start thinking about stakes building immediately.

Priority number one for me is to secure my stakes in the greatest feasible way. I picked this option since it allows me to spend the same money in several tries to profit. I have emphasized the significance of value betting. Now I'll go a little further. As you can see, betting on value odds for a home win in tonight's match does not guarantee anything. In the long run, it is the best option, but no one can predict what will happen on any given night. Right?

Consider this. If you can afford to lose 30€/$ tonight, these 30€/$ are gone forever if your picks lose. Don't you want to protect your stakes as much as possible so you may reinvest them in a new attempt to profit?

Time to get back to business. I cannot ignore the goal expectancy signal for the home team. Therefore I will go for profit on the home win scenario and keep some draw scenarios as my safety net. 

Predictions: What should we bet on then?

 Enough with the theory, let’s get practical. Below are my selections

 

• Home win @1.66 BET365
• 1-1 scoreline @7.50 BET365
• 2-2 scoreline @15.00 BET365

Fulham FC vs Sheffield United 20-12-2021 BET 365 Odds

These 3 selections cost me 0.802 units based on how much I should stake on each one to get back one (1) unit. This is equal to 24.62% net profit (using Betakos Stake Calculator) when one of these selections win.

I can understand that 24% net profit is not the same as 66% if you go all on home win, but remember my priority: I like to secure my stakes best way possible. In my example, I cover two draw scenarios.

My selections are based on two (2) big decisions or terms or conditions, whatever you prefer:

1. Fulham to score (at least a goal)
2. Sheffield not scoring three (3) or more goals

 If I hit these two terms correctly I only lose on the 1-2 exact scoreline.

However, this is not the end of the story. There is still some profit margin to go around for. As I previously stated, my choices cost me 0.802 units, which means I have 0.198 units left till I reach the one (1) unit threshold.

So I'm going to utilize the rest of my funds to back the home team to win. This leads to a slight rise in my net profit if I win, increasing to around 33 percent net profit, which is half of the 66 percent but still provides a very adequate defense for my stakes, don't you think?

Fulham FC vs Sheffield United BSC Home win

I will offer you a little bonus before the end. If you would like anything higher in profit, you could well use the home team and the 2-2 draw scenario as your cover and go for the 1-1. In this case your net profit margin would be 148% or could be even higher if you could see Sheffield scoring up to two goals and the 2-2 draw scenario. Now you could claim a 296% of net profit.

Fulham FC vs Sheffield United BSC 1-1

Fulham FC vs Sheffield United BSC 2-2

Thank you for your time reading this post. I wish you enjoyed this Betting Preview. Good luck whatever you bet in this match. Please feel free to leave your comments, suggestions, or critics in the comments section.