BetPreview: ENPL Crystal Palace vs Leeds United 25-4-2022 betting preview stats predictions

The public considers Crystal Palace the favorite, but be aware

 

The match is filed under a group of matches that have produced 2-5-2 (H-D-A) in the past, meaning there is no real value backing the home win tonight.

Of course, the fact that the home win offers no value is not a guarantee of not happening tonight.

Personally, I prefer to lose chasing some value not the opposite. If anyone fancies the home win please consider a good defense for your stakes.

I am going to use this match as an example of different thinking and approach to betting.

The over 1.5 total goals looks stronger than the home win. Again based on past matches’ stats.

It has occurred 8 times in these 9 past matches. This pick is being offered at odds around 1,28.

Now we could use this pick as our standard pick, in order to cover our stakes chasing something not common.

In this example, I will be chasing the one-goal margin away win. Such a pick is offered at around 4,75.

Now the mechanism or the idea is this. The pick named as our standard is something that should win. Otherwise, our stakes are exposed to the underdog selection we are chasing.

We all know that underdog selections do not win every time we place the wager. This is why we need to carefully select the banker.

Now let us assume that we can risk 100 units in total. The difficult part is the calculations about how exactly our stakes should be allocated to the 2 selections. We can not split our wages randomly across the 2 selections. We must be 100% accurate based on what we are trying to achieve. Numbers are numbers, meaning the margins are all set.

There is the minimum amount to be placed at the banker to guarantee the return of our total stakes at least, of course in the scenario that the banker actually is a winner.

We can paraphrase the minimum amount to be waged on the banker as one possible answer to the following question:

“How much of the profit coming from backing the banker, are we willing to risk backing the underdog?”

One answer could be that we are willing to risk 100% of the profit offered by the banker. And we can all understand that this is not the only valid answer. We could well choose 95% of the profits meaning that if the banker wins we can at least get a 5% net profit when the underdog selection loses. Which will be occurring most of the time.

Of course, each selection set profit limits in all directions. In our given set of odds, banker 1,28 and underdog 4,75 one end is 103,91% of net profit only if the underdogs is the winner. If not, we just get our stakes back.

But how much should we bet on each selection?

Well to help you with this I have built a little spreadsheet I offer to everyone 100% free. Just leave your email and you will be given the download link.

Now although we are talking about a single match in this article all things apply to multiple selections too. We could use a double selection as our banker to go after any kind of underdog.

To make things easier for you, I will present an easy example. One good practice is for both “bankers” and “underdogs” to belong to the same market family. Think about Over/Under markets. If you would easily consider backing the over 2,5 in two matches, that would mean that the over 1,5 could well be the bankers correct?

So you got 2 doubles. First is the over 1,5 and the other the over 2,5.

Now, this way you add more security for your total wages, of course by decreasing the original profit margins. Backing the double of over 2,5, of course, offer more profit but less security. What if one match ends on 2-1 but the second match on 1-1 scorelines?

Your total wages are lost. But if you would use the banker method you would get it back at least.

The choice is up to you, always!

Let's finish our example though.

Banker 1,28

Underdog 4,75

If we risk 100% of banker profits to the underdog then the wages (100 units) split is the following:

Banker Odds Stake % = 78,13%

Underdog Odds Stake % = 21,87%

Let’s prove things. On 100 units we will place 78,13 units on the banker and the rest on the underdog. The total cost is 100 units. If the banker wins we get a return of 78,13 times 1,28 which equals 100 units. So we got the stakes back for sure. But we also have allocated 21,88 units on odds of 4,75. If this wins too, then we get another return of 4,75 times 21,87 which equals 103,93 units. Now, these units are a net profit. Cause we already have covered our original stakes.

To sum things up

If we choose to back the so-called banker then we get a net profit of 28%.

If we choose to back the underdog alone, we get a net profit of 375% each time it lands. We all understand that this is not happening often enough.

If we choose the banker-underdog coverage method, we get 104% net profit when the underdog lands and we get the stakes back when the underdog loses but the banker wins.

It’s up to you 100%.

Extra tip: We just talked about one build. We could use the same banker to chase the 1-1 draw for instance. That would be a separate build. So I hope that you get the idea. If you feel absolutely comfortable with your banker try to maximize the profits out of it.

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